Trading Journal of a Cash Equities Trader…
Week of December 22 to January 2
Play continues in Basic Materials (IYM):
AA,
Airlines still in tight consolidation. Wait for resolution; looks bearish but unsure.
GOOG at $300 level w/ short term offers. VRSN also weak on bid to $15,
TKTM TD13w confirmed, UNTD short term vol. contraction, VCLK w&m TD w/ daily inv. H&S
Several DJUSFN top 10 components ready to rally:
PNC (TD11d, monitor for initial size), SCHW,
STT (TD13w w/ multiple confirm., to be reviewed):
AFL:
ACE:
BBT, CME, JPM (30, 35, 42),
Must prioritize portfolio positions with opening entries (e.g. V)
Set the ETF long/short baskets up based on individual ETF’s characteristics and overall profile objective of the particular basket. Short basket to include BBH (biotech holders). Name each basket according to each baskets trading objectives. Set up portfolio for long-bias rally next week due to window dressing. XHB perfect example to illustrate TD daily confirmation buy signal (Nov. lows). Need assistant traders. Long/Short book for overnight balance. Short Biotech. With longs in CELG, CEPH as hedge/pair.
Going over sector charts, looks like market “could” roll over if these levels are broken in major index’s. Preceded by window dressing rally? Many financials hugging d/t line (BAC).
ALL:
Q’s range contraction, could explode but on Friday? Stoch sell (almost).
SPY’s major technical level $83.44 (pSAR). 87.90 – 88.40 A-Level convergence of resistance. $86 nearest Fib level. Stoch sell but CMF positive div. More importantly, pulling away from PRIMARY downtrend line. $66 long-term target??? For broader market extended rally, S&P is too close underneath primary t/l. SHORT-TERM BOUNCE off 12/12 low $85.20. Target = 87.90 – 88.40 A-Level convergence of resistance.
DIA 50-day EMA $89. Dow critical support 8400 (8347 last line in the sand). Or we could see another 500 point rally off this level like 12/16 (remember extreme readings).
Dow Jones Internet TD buy signals.
Continue monitoring Auto Mfrs.
DJ US Basic Materials “finally” confirms TD 16 weekly! IYM is ETF. Large swing position can be hedged overnight using SKF/FAZ. Daily nice entry.
ALKS- SHORT here around $10-$11.
MBI- TD count is 10. Confirming indicators catching up. This has to be a position trade. Volatility down so premiums on Puts and Calls should be low.
PNC- Forming major DOUBLE BOTTOM. TD buy signal. Multiple confirmations but missing Stochastic by 1 or 2 days. Likely to trigger SOON/FRIDAY.
MTB- Bouncing off prior major low. Room to $65. Trendline target $58. Quick trade. (Rising bear flag in Nomura?). NTRS good for a quick pop of $3-$4 off major t/l convergence & MA support.
FIG- Appears very close to confirming daily TD 16 buy signal. There was a volume spike on 1/2 day Wed with a tail. TD13 count weekly buy signal (unconfirmed).
URE- TD weekly buy signal confirming. Daily TD still valid. $6 is the breakout here. Exact same scenario in UYG.
IAI (b.d.)- flashing short-term sell signals. Due to low volume/liquidity environ., possible bounce to $20 as a squeeze.
ITB (h.b.)- area around $9 is TRIPLE convergence of A-level data points. Next A-lever convergence is around $7 (a/t low). Huge positive div. CMF. Stoch & momentum short-term SELL. Expect massive bounce off $9.
IVC- Perfect range contraction directly to t/l. Multiple MA support underneath. Easy to create out through $12.50.
KBW- “covered” bullish pattern due to price spikes. Are these price spikes from September throwing off the charts for a reason? Find others.Target zone $24.50 – $25.15. Through those levels, $30.
SIVB- TD triggers daily/weekly. Confirmations “close”. Monitor.
C- Short set up
