I’m posting the response I gave to a close family member upon hearing that he took profits on positions established last Friday with my advice. My objective per his request was to build a long-term portfolio of financial stocks with the potential to start paying dividends several years hence… His reasoning for taking profits? “I [...]
The December CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Variance futures settled at 5053, which is a volatility of about 71% (square root). That number was once “unreachable” on a short term basis, let alone over a 90-day period. Longer-term Variance much lower for now, in the range of 38% to 43% volatility (still relatively high). If market [...]
Barclays, after rejecting the need for a bail-out in an open letter sent to staff this week by it’s Chairman and CEO, continued to surge higher, posted another 11.6% rally in London on Tuesday. The FTSE is slightly negative as I write this, but US futures are pointing to a higher opening. Focus remains on [...]
Week of Jan. 26 This potential bottom almost looks perfect. Do we go in aggressive early and keep buying dips? I think that’s the play here. NTRS- Strong rel. strength. Did not follow sector to new lows in Jan. All of the following are giving qualified Sequential buy signals: SPY: Also inv. H&S ABK- Buy [...]
For Thursday: JPM- Top name. Target size is 3 boats. Work hard for it. Confirmed/Qualified 12 count. Assume all insiders have been massive buyers over prior several weeks at unheard of prices. This is where crowd psychology starts to shift, and the beginning of the momentum shift is always the toughest AND most profitable. FOCUS…FOCUS…FOCUS… [...]
Or should I say “feast”, to better reflect my opinion? Perfect catch of the turn. Having switched from net short to net long mid day and scored doubles on both sides is excellent for a typically uneventful Wed. Nevertheless, should have crushed it beyond what was achieved. Seems like overly cautious following prior 8 weeks [...]
All inverse ETF’s, including double and triple inverse ETF’s, are in the process of discounting (i.e. price discovery) a “volatility” premium due to institutional hedging in times of extreme market stress. When gamma explodes because of the impact of volatility on derivative pricing, hedging becomes much more difficult as “prudent” hedges seem to malfunction all [...]
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