Trading Ideas Week of January 12, 2009
JPM, BAC broke on huge volume and are headed for their lows. GS looks like it’s in trouble here. CLosed below all of its MA’s and ON near term trendline. High volume on Mon’s sell-off. Relative to these charts, SKF has the potential to run about $100. JPM actually could make a new low based on ABC correction w/ overlap. Check MTF’s. Closed directly on 61.8 Fib Projection level and is in 6th count. If $24.60 holds, could rally to $29. If $24.50 breaks, will test $21 or lower.
SRS on a pullback. REIT’s are getting pummeled. Figure out why this is happening to the sector. Is this a new leg down or a possible higher low?
SKF blew through cluster of MA’s via 2x bottom. Going to $200. Tape on Monday indicated deep bid support, suggesting beginning of move, with a lot of upside to go. Test 121-123 not mandatory because of breakaway gap Monday. Bid $129. Trade defined channel from Monday. Also buy FAS to test $100. DJUSFN potential new leg down to test lows. Will this get SKF/FAZ to prior highs?
USO showing multiple positive divergences and CRB registered TD13w buy signal (DBC). Possible 2x bottom forming $27. OR S2 around $30 level. OR ABC correction with A&B complete.
Consider building position in DBC $19.50
Pullback in last week’s leaders (tech/chip/Ag) names on declining volume, possible work on S2:
MRVL (5.75), NYX ($22 or $19), POT ($61/62 or $54), STT ($33), STLD ($8.25), X ($28.75)
Q’s break below $29 near term significant.
SPY bracket remains $85-$92. S2 around $84 w/ pivot $82
PCLN retrace to MA convergence; possible weekly bear flag. Break below $71 confirms.
RIMM resisted by 50d-EMA. 15m possible H&S with S2 $48 & n/l $46.
FDX completes bear flag and Air Freight index confirms.
UPS completes same as FDX.
