Archive for May, 2009

Subordinated Debt and the Paradox of Bailout Psychology

Corporate bonds have been on a tear since April; however, the paper of financial firms has outperformed all other categories by a significant margin. This is odd and perhaps suggests the market is either not correctly pricing this paper, or something is artificially preserving their value. During April and May, investment-grade subordinated financial bonds returned [...]

Update on the B.R.I.C. Theme

There’s a lot of play here right now, and this group has consistently been on the top of my performance list. They’re a wild bunch and you have to try and trade against the herd, otherwise there’s no liquidity and you’ll get picked off like an ugly zit. The theme is really revving up and [...]

June Swoon in Equity Markets?

The SPX bottomed 3/6/09 at 666, and has never looked back, as the index galloped into the longest buying stampede in decades. Major indices are in the process of forming an intermediate “top” with insiders selling like mad. At the same time, many of the leading groups are breaking below their relative strength support levels. [...]

Colbert on Trading Algorithms

Great piece by Colbert discussing last hour sell programs triggered by algorithms:

Implied Dividends and Market Optimism

Implied dividends of European stocks based off of dividend swaps on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index, have jumped, indicating growing optimism about equity markets worldwide.
Implied dividends were at distressed levels near the end of Q’4 last year. The cause was a scramble by dealers to hedge their long dividend exposures. Worsening dividend forecasts combined in [...]

Ten (or more) Trading Ideas for Professional Traders

Game Plan – Market following “yields”. Watch 5 and 10y yields. Technician’s waiting for “right shoulder” will be left behind. Watch for start of retracement to test long-term support and confirm recent bottoms, but maintain bullish view until reversals are in.
Campaign – Most “Doji’s” negated. Dow INDU target 8940-9000. 8350 support.  DJINET trg= 90. Energy [...]

10 Chinese Stocks Headed Higher

There are several good stocks coming up on my radar. So I’m going to provide a quick list of my top choices:
HMIN – Huge hotel chain throughout China.
NPD- Enormous retail drugstore chain throughout China. Excellent growth and margin ratios.
CPSL- Specialty Steel
HIMX- Specialty Chipmaker
ACTS- Semiconductor Manufacturer
SVA- Biotech with H1N1 “hype”
QXM- Mobile phone handset distributor and network [...]