Archive for the 'Commodities' Category

Iraq, Iran and Surging Oil Prices

By George Friedman The United States told the Iraqi government last week that if it wants U.S. troops to remain in Iraq beyond the deadline of Dec. 31, 2011, as stipulated by the current Status of Forces Agreement between Washington and Baghdad, it would have to inform the United States quickly. Unless a new agreement [...]

A Trader’s Diary from 2006 to the Present

In 2006, there were those of us who knew, like we did in 2000, that something was wrong. It wasn’t because we were “in the know”, rather because we could recognize and think we know how to read a chart, like we actually did back then. What mattered was nothing but the supply demand equation [...]

Three Ideas for a Flat-Lining Market

I am always a student of market theory which is dynamic and highly behavioral due to present micro-structure of US markets and the behavior of algorithms, some of which are predatory, others passive, and others just gathering intelligence by searching for natural size. When volatility and correlations spike, you need someone with highly specialized skill [...]

Commodities-Emerging-Frontier-Global Macro Markets and Analysis

Did I mention the Blue Screen of Death (BSOD) which has had one of my laptops in a loop for 10 days? Today, I saw something quite extraordinary yet obvious: the importance of being in the right market at the right time. Regardless of where or what that market is. For example, in the old [...]

CME and US Stocks in General

If you look at a chart of CME from late ’08 to the present, you’ll notice it’s gone into a flat-line, just like much of the US equity market. GOOG ended the year right where it started. BIDU (amazing split on the year) and APPL kicked ass because GOOG would do no evil and APPL [...]

Bearish Macro Signals and Muni Bonds

A bunch of friends whined about my posts being infrequent lately (because there’s nothing to talk about, nor observations to insult your intelligence with other than how the weather in NY and frigid markets in 2011 are somehow linked, as some “live” retail research shops have written). Or my dialogue was too coded and fragmented. [...]

Easiest Trading Week of the Year Ahead

There is a noticeable positive seasonal bias surrounding the Christmas holiday and this will keep stocks elevated and maybe even convince some end of year bonuses to go into the market via the mainstream mutual funds. So expect the Nas 100 to move higher in anticipation of a hard and fast sell-off on the 2nd [...]