As reported by Institutional Risk Analytics, the following is a list of the 19 domestic banks taking part in the so-called SCAP stress test. These banks are likely to be under the “too big to fail” category. Thus, if they fail their stress tests, they will be receiving another injection of public funds: Holding Company [...]
The real action behind the scenes. This is monumental. No, “GENERATIONAL”. No… it’s… it’s … Politics aside, the reality is thus, according to my dogma, the Financial Times: Lawrence Summers, senior economic adviser to Barack Obama, US president, told the Financial Times recently that the Group of 20 countries should agree to boost government demand. [...]
“Cuz I’m free fallin, now I’m free fallin, free falling…..” General market theory suggests sharp sell-off’s need to be on high volume in order to culminate into a tradable bottom, ala the 10/10 and 11/20 lows. However, should the market make new lows on very little volume, as we have seen this past week, the [...]
While investors are focusing all of their attention on US banks, another systemic risk is brewing compliments of the Eurozone and Chinese Banks. Even Swiss banks are sitting on a time bomb as all of them have lent trillions of Euros to Baltic states, Russia and Latin America. For all intents and purposes, these loans [...]
As short rates rise, I’m getting more convinced we are moving through the first half of the recession, perhaps even past the half-way mark. Once 3month rates broke above Fed Funds, yield curve is signaling we are in the recovery stage and may very well pull Fed Funds higher sooner rather than later. It’s also [...]
The December CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Variance futures settled at 5053, which is a volatility of about 71% (square root). That number was once “unreachable” on a short term basis, let alone over a 90-day period. Longer-term Variance much lower for now, in the range of 38% to 43% volatility (still relatively high). If market [...]
Brief note…more to come later… Asset managers getting hammered pre-market because of State Street numbers, and disclosure of at least $10B in losses for next quarter. Why they didn’t just include it in this quarter, even though their stock is taking the hit because of the disclosure, defies logic. What’s going on? Could this get [...]
Congress is revising the “look back” provision on losses from two years to five years as a means of providing fiscal support for the nations home builders. As a result, the group is poised to receive massive tax rebate checks in the billions of dollars for each company. The following are the top weighted components [...]
Market’s appear strong overnight. Around 16 handles at 9:30pm EST. SPX resistance at 950. If market opens around 950 on the cash index, fade the gap up using SDS & SSO (short), DXD/DDM. Experiment with trading just one ETF class with larger size. On the long side, stock selection is key. I want to go [...]
Week of November 10 Still bullish on the market but defensive in nature. Not putting myself out there for anything, in either direction. Take trades for the time being and generate cash flow. When the rally comes, it’ll be obvious. TRIN behaving very bullish all week, spending Wed & Thur around 3.00 and as high [...]
Week of November 3 THUR- Heavy volume on the sell-off. Market’s spooked by the lopsided gov’t. As expected, but didn’t exploit. Monitor airlines for entry levels (see below). Many charts look like gaps from Tuesday were closed. Only problem is volume expanding across the board. So many charts look terrible, I feel like we’re going [...]
“We’re going to see five hedge funds fail for every bank, maybe more,” A moment of reckoning for many hedge funds may come at the end of this month, when their exposure to credit default swaps must be “marked to market” to reflect the increased obligations at the end of the third quarter. Olivant, the [...]
