The desk I run is an Institutional Long/Short Equity desk which tries to maintain a “market neutral” book. This doesn’t mean “buy 1000 shares of IBM and 10 puts”. What market neutrality means is that one need not be concerned about the overall direction of the market, as momentum traders are, but rather have long [...]
Gold went over $1000 and sustained a rally to $1020. A dip to test, and re-test $1000 is likely. This magical number will continue to be used as the line at which bulls and bears continue to thrash each other relentlessly like a tug-of-war match in an Ultimate Fighting chained rink. I’m watching the 70.50 [...]
With all of the clutter and insanity due to groups turning into recruiting grounds and advertising forums for esoteric and mindless products, I was compelled to launch my own LinkedIn Group which is being emphatically embraced by the systematic and discretionary proprietary trading universe, to my delight. I know many of you are Prop. Traders, [...]
The US Economy, according to the behavior of key market sectors, is on an absolute tear and within six to nine months, the data is going to be screaming “expansion” at a breakneck pace. Bond market behavior over the past several weeks suggested the same except the talking heads tried to rationalize it as “bond vigilantes” wreaking havoc on the President’s fiscal policies. A monkey could have rationalized better than them.
The largest share redistribution of the country’s financial companies is about to take place right before our very eyes. This is the final crescendo of the Financial Crisis of 2008: Massive share sales of the strongest banks that are standing right now. .. All of a sudden, showing strength for the past several weeks and [...]
The SPX bottomed 3/6/09 at 666, and has never looked back, as the index galloped into the longest buying stampede in decades. Major indices are in the process of forming an intermediate “top” with insiders selling like mad. At the same time, many of the leading groups are breaking below their relative strength support levels. [...]
Market’s appear strong overnight. Around 16 handles at 9:30pm EST. SPX resistance at 950. If market opens around 950 on the cash index, fade the gap up using SDS & SSO (short), DXD/DDM. Experiment with trading just one ETF class with larger size. On the long side, stock selection is key. I want to go [...]
“We’re going to see five hedge funds fail for every bank, maybe more,” A moment of reckoning for many hedge funds may come at the end of this month, when their exposure to credit default swaps must be “marked to market” to reflect the increased obligations at the end of the third quarter. Olivant, the [...]
Regarding those increasingly volatile Chinese stocks, there’s a bearish overlay on Chinese material producers because of government controls on prices. Therefore, refiners and marketers like Sinopec (SHI) are operating at forced losses
I’m becoming convinced that Chinese stocks are presenting an opportunity for swing traders. These particular stocks accomplish their moves in gaps. Here is China Life Insurance (LFC): To see China Life trading in the $50 range after last year’s parabolic run, which began in many of these names last August, for the institutional long-term buyers, [...]
Morgan Stanley (MS) has rewarded us for being patient. In my last post on January 21, I suggested she would trade down in the low 40′s. If you missed the idea, this stock is looking very attractive as a long term investment for so many reasons that I don’t want to even bother discussing them all here, but I will list them: Forward P.E. in the single digits, Fed is in aggressive cutting mode and lending margins are expanding, sub-prime is expected to get much worse from here and thus priced in. Therefore the risk is to the upside.
It’s great to be a global macro equity trader right now for a couple of reasons I’ll get to in just a second. But first, it’s not often there are widespread global macro strategies being employed by various market participants. Whether you know it or not, there’s a good chance your portfolio has a little [...]
