Archive for the 'global macro' Category

Chinese Carrier Killer

Source: The Associated Press Author(s): Eric Talmadge Original Post: Chinese ‘carrier-killer’ missile raises concerns of Pacific power shift Date: 08/05/2010 ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON — Nothing projects U.S. global air and sea power more vividly than supercarriers. Bristling with fighter jets that can reach deep into even landlocked trouble zones, America’s virtually invincible carrier [...]

Implied Dividends and Market Optimism

Originally posted 2009-05-13 10:21:46. Republished by Blog Post PromoterImplied dividends of European stocks based off of dividend swaps on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index, have jumped, indicating growing optimism about equity markets worldwide. Implied dividends were at distressed levels near the end of Q’4 last year. The cause was a scramble by dealers to hedge [...]

Tails Tails Everywhere: A Look at the Carnage from “The Glitch”

Notwithstanding my annoyance at last week’s “technical glitch” that probably made a few people over a billion dollars, the problems it caused for my programs because of extremely large tails in many stocks is a bigger hindrance. The lows set on Thursday’s sudden cascade 1000 point sell-off, although we’re being told was caused by a [...]

Global Macro Themes for the Proprietary Trader

30-year Treasury Yields are about to spike along with a dollar rally. I feel this is the catalyst to trigger a sustained pullback in equities, which will reflect our rising unemployment rate and all the stimulus plans that are slowly phasing out. Equity Long/Short Market Neutral traders will have an edge in this market over [...]

Macro Signals…

Gold went over $1000 and sustained a rally to $1020. A dip to test, and re-test $1000 is likely. This magical number will continue to be used as the line at which bulls and bears continue to thrash each other relentlessly like a tug-of-war match in an Ultimate Fighting chained rink. I’m watching the 70.50 [...]

Invitation to Join New LinkedIn Group

With all of the clutter and insanity due to groups turning into recruiting grounds and advertising forums for esoteric and mindless products, I was compelled to launch my own LinkedIn Group which is being emphatically embraced by the systematic and discretionary proprietary trading universe, to my delight. I know many of you are Prop. Traders, [...]

US Economy is ON FIRE According to US Stocks…

The US Economy, according to the behavior of key market sectors, is on an absolute tear and within six to nine months, the data is going to be screaming “expansion” at a breakneck pace. Bond market behavior over the past several weeks suggested the same except the talking heads tried to rationalize it as “bond vigilantes” wreaking havoc on the President’s fiscal policies. A monkey could have rationalized better than them.

Open Letter Response to Stratfor

The Stratfor article, presented in its entirety at the end of this letter, has failed to take into account historical precedents that are now having significant sway over the outcome of the popular uprising in Iran. Moreover, suggesting this to be “isolated to students at elite universities in Tehran proper” is grossly inaccurate. As a [...]

Capitalist Socialism and the Net Net of It All

The largest share redistribution of the country’s financial companies is about to take place right before our very eyes. This is the final crescendo of the Financial Crisis of 2008: Massive share sales of the strongest banks that are standing right now. .. All of a sudden, showing strength for the past several weeks and [...]

Subordinated Debt and the Paradox of Bailout Psychology

Corporate bonds have been on a tear since April; however, the paper of financial firms has outperformed all other categories by a significant margin. This is odd and perhaps suggests the market is either not correctly pricing this paper, or something is artificially preserving their value. During April and May, investment-grade subordinated financial bonds returned [...]

June Swoon in Equity Markets?

The SPX bottomed 3/6/09 at 666, and has never looked back, as the index galloped into the longest buying stampede in decades. Major indices are in the process of forming an intermediate “top” with insiders selling like mad. At the same time, many of the leading groups are breaking below their relative strength support levels. [...]