The 50% premium being paid for OSIP by Astellas, which is roughly $52/share, was actually rejected by the board. The market is pricing the stock at $56, and I think the stock climbs another $10 from here. There will be another bidder. The M&A attention is bullish for the sector. There are some good plays [...]
The 2 MOST essential books in any Trader’s library.
The desk I run is an Institutional Long/Short Equity desk which tries to maintain a “market neutral” book. This doesn’t mean “buy 1000 shares of IBM and 10 puts”. What market neutrality means is that one need not be concerned about the overall direction of the market, as momentum traders are, but rather have long [...]
With all of the clutter and insanity due to groups turning into recruiting grounds and advertising forums for esoteric and mindless products, I was compelled to launch my own LinkedIn Group which is being emphatically embraced by the systematic and discretionary proprietary trading universe, to my delight. I know many of you are Prop. Traders, [...]
Fear and risk aversion are creeping back into the market. Will this be an acute development or something with longer duration? Data coming in very discouraging. March ADP employment figures were a disaster with over 50% of the losses coming from the service sector. It looks like most promising equity market is China. The Shanghai [...]
“Cuz I’m free fallin, now I’m free fallin, free falling…..” General market theory suggests sharp sell-off’s need to be on high volume in order to culminate into a tradable bottom, ala the 10/10 and 11/20 lows. However, should the market make new lows on very little volume, as we have seen this past week, the [...]
The market gapped down big and closed below the open on Monday for a second day in a row. Selling was heavy but not excessive or extreme by any stretch of the imagination. The major indices all fell between 4% to 5%. Breadth was deeply negative, which is the only silver lining right now. The [...]
What is the TRIN? Richard Arms developed Arms index, which is better known as the NYSE Short Term Trading Index. The indicator is used in a contrarian manner to detect overbought and oversold levels. The indicators calculation creates an inverse relationship with the market. In the most basic analysis, a rising TRIN is bearish and [...]
The CBOE Options Put/Call Ratio is a contrarian indicator commonly used by investors to gauge overall sentiment. The close today indirectly suggests a rally could be looming around the corner. The lower the reading then the more call volume is being traded versus put volume, suggesting investors are bullish on the market. On the contrary [...]
As short rates rise, I’m getting more convinced we are moving through the first half of the recession, perhaps even past the half-way mark. Once 3month rates broke above Fed Funds, yield curve is signaling we are in the recovery stage and may very well pull Fed Funds higher sooner rather than later. It’s also [...]
The December CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Variance futures settled at 5053, which is a volatility of about 71% (square root). That number was once “unreachable” on a short term basis, let alone over a 90-day period. Longer-term Variance much lower for now, in the range of 38% to 43% volatility (still relatively high). If market [...]
Or should I say “feast”, to better reflect my opinion? Perfect catch of the turn. Having switched from net short to net long mid day and scored doubles on both sides is excellent for a typically uneventful Wed. Nevertheless, should have crushed it beyond what was achieved. Seems like overly cautious following prior 8 weeks [...]
