In late December, early January, there was widespread talk about the potential earnings hit Netflix (NFLX) was destined to take as they prepared to enrage their customers by implementing two huge changes. The first was an across the board membership price increase, which didn’t include streaming-only memberships, and the second had to do with the [...]
The following letter is a contributing factor behind NFLX’s 75% decline from recent highs that touched $300; although simultaneous announcements of spinning off the DVD division into a stand alone company called “Quikster” and the company’s decision to raise prices by 60% (although they back tracked from this) have created uncertainty in a stock that [...]
Back in May, dear Capitalists, Investment Capitalist, where one may find quite a few more articles that can lead to “actionable positions and analysis” if read by the astute, skilled market operator. I can’t tell you what to short or when and at what price. I’m not a market timer, nor a big fan of technical [...]
As short rates rise, I’m getting more convinced we are moving through the first half of the recession, perhaps even past the half-way mark. Once 3month rates broke above Fed Funds, yield curve is signaling we are in the recovery stage and may very well pull Fed Funds higher sooner rather than later. It’s also [...]
To become better traders, we look to our historical notes on crucial dates. This write-up revisits a post from April 20th, 2010 entitled “Global Financial Panic or Major Buying Opportunity in Stocks”. Most trades involved familiar companies and their trading patterns. Others came from scanning IBD’s Top 100 List during the panic, running the top 25% [...]
In 2006, there were those of us who knew, like we did in 2000, that something was wrong. It wasn’t because we were “in the know”, rather because we could recognize and think we know how to read a chart, like we actually did back then. What mattered was nothing but the supply demand equation [...]
I am always a student of market theory which is dynamic and highly behavioral due to present micro-structure of US markets and the behavior of algorithms, some of which are predatory, others passive, and others just gathering intelligence by searching for natural size. When volatility and correlations spike, you need someone with highly specialized skill [...]
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