“Cuz I’m free fallin, now I’m free fallin, free falling…..” General market theory suggests sharp sell-off’s need to be on high volume in order to culminate into a tradable bottom, ala the 10/10 and 11/20 lows. However, should the market make new lows on very little volume, as we have seen this past week, the [...]
This is a chart of Crude and ERY. ERY scale is on the left, crude scale is on the right. However, the crude scale is inverted to make it easier to see the actual divergence trade. You can clearly see the divergence in the first half of February. Crude proceeds to head lower while ERY [...]
Game Plan – Play the macro themes. Position trading emphasis. Intraday trading via baskets only. Campaign -Only trade your levels from Trade Sheet. Major credit event (e.g. 1971Nixon closed gold window, 1929 Humphrey devalued dollar) to push value of Gold higher. PRIORITY- First GOLD. Market might crash. Failed H&S patterns everywhere. VIX double bottom still [...]
Week of Jan. 26 This potential bottom almost looks perfect. Do we go in aggressive early and keep buying dips? I think that’s the play here. NTRS- Strong rel. strength. Did not follow sector to new lows in Jan. All of the following are giving qualified Sequential buy signals: SPY: Also inv. H&S ABK- Buy [...]
For Thursday: JPM- Top name. Target size is 3 boats. Work hard for it. Confirmed/Qualified 12 count. Assume all insiders have been massive buyers over prior several weeks at unheard of prices. This is where crowd psychology starts to shift, and the beginning of the momentum shift is always the toughest AND most profitable. FOCUS…FOCUS…FOCUS… [...]
Or should I say “feast”, to better reflect my opinion? Perfect catch of the turn. Having switched from net short to net long mid day and scored doubles on both sides is excellent for a typically uneventful Wed. Nevertheless, should have crushed it beyond what was achieved. Seems like overly cautious following prior 8 weeks [...]
All inverse ETF’s, including double and triple inverse ETF’s, are in the process of discounting (i.e. price discovery) a “volatility” premium due to institutional hedging in times of extreme market stress. When gamma explodes because of the impact of volatility on derivative pricing, hedging becomes much more difficult as “prudent” hedges seem to malfunction all [...]
Long-term study of S&P 500 cash index shows 18m RSI below30 for first time since 2003 bottom. Modify long basket: re-weight sectors based on model runs on Sunday!!! ERX, CRM, CAT & CME, ICE - swing pivot UYG- Friday 8 count. Volume rising. Looking for climax low… URE- 2nd volume spike around major low. Final bottom [...]
JPM, BAC broke on huge volume and are headed for their lows. GS looks like it’s in trouble here. CLosed below all of its MA’s and ON near term trendline. High volume on Mon’s sell-off. Relative to these charts, SKF has the potential to run about $100. JPM actually could make a new low based [...]
WED: Market on the verge of confirming multi-month bottoms in “Obama” related sectors (i.e. infrastructure, solar, coal, tech). Market was giving clear signals that a trap was being set yesterday, and today’s massive gap to the downside was the final leg. Those trapped bulls are now panicking out, which sent the NYSE TRIN over 2 [...]
FAS plenty of room to the upside. Create long basket with this. MBI breakaway gap? Watch AGM, ACI SKF break below $100 pending…. CSUN watch closely DRYS target $18.50 EBAY – S2 in place, shallow but potent target ~$20. N/L ~$15.30 AAPL, GOOG multiple b/o’s. Watch for shakeout/recovery. MCHP, MRVL, NVDA, RIMM rally in progress SPY [...]
January 2 AIG Commodity Index confirms bottom ACI immediate buy CAT, CLF What’s going on with CCRT? CMDTY: AKS- good S2.. Follow up on nat. gas stocks: CHK, CNX, EOG Watch Solar SPY traded through d/t line on rising volume. Is this a trap? 50dEMA $91.75 CME going to top range ~$265 AAPL $85 not [...]
