Week of November 10
Still bullish on the market but defensive
in nature. Not putting myself out there for anything, in either
direction. Take trades for the time being and generate cash flow. When
the rally comes, it’ll be obvious. TRIN behaving very bullish all week,
spending Wed & Thur around 3.00 and as high as 4.0. Didn’t show
overbought on [...]
Week of November 3
THUR-
Heavy volume on the sell-off. Market’s spooked by the lopsided gov’t. As expected, but didn’t exploit.
Monitor airlines for entry levels (see below). Many charts look like gaps from Tuesday were closed. Only problem is volume expanding across the board. So many charts look terrible, I feel like we’re going to revisit the [...]
Week of October 27th:
Wed p.m.-
Yesterday, markets rallied 880 points. Today, a 300 point rally reversed to close almost flat. This is a very bullish sign. The euphoria became excessive because we had rallied almost 20% in 2 days. So the late day reversal was a definite shakeout of the fast money, weak hands. I have [...]
“We’re going to see five hedge funds fail for every bank, maybe more,”
A moment of reckoning for many hedge funds may come at the end of this month, when their exposure to credit default swaps must be “marked to market” to reflect the increased obligations at the end of the third quarter.
Olivant, the investment group [...]
Week of September 16
WED:
Overnight thoughts: If Morgan is considering a takeover, then Morgan is in trouble. And as LEH showed, the downward spiral is viscous. It has to fall. Think about it. All financial counterparties to MS are looking to eliminate risk as fast as possible. Whether MS is well capitalized or not is irrelevant. [...]
The entire universe of “Tiger Cub’s and Seeds” (offshoot funds of Julian Robertson) are sitting on huge long positions in the following high beta stocks:
GOOG, RIMM, QCOM, BIDU, AAPL
I doubt there is intentional coercion, but there is certainly dialogue. What are the short-term implications for fast money traders? These stocks will have support on significant [...]
Friday’s rally confirmed by volume.
Biotech Index continues to hover near all-time highs, testing October 2007 levels. Red flag is Accum. Swing Index, which has not confirmed high (except Monthly). A broad market rally focused on Tech, catalyst being USD, will rotate $$ out of defensive stocks (e.g. healthcare). Wait/watch for pullback in this sector.
Short M&M’s Anyone?
Perhaps it’s time to put on the contrarian hat and re-visit metals and mining stocks. Aside from the macro tide that could be turning against the sector in the long-run, the near term is looking more and more like a blow-off top could be underway. The group has had the wind at its [...]
Regarding those increasingly volatile Chinese stocks, there’s a bearish overlay on Chinese material producers because of government controls on prices. Therefore, refiners and marketers like Sinopec (SHI) are operating at forced losses
I’m becoming convinced that Chinese stocks are presenting an opportunity for swing traders. These particular stocks accomplish their moves in gaps. Here is China Life Insurance (LFC):
To see China Life trading in the $50 range after last year’s parabolic run, which began in many of these names last August, for the institutional long-term buyers, this [...]
This is one of those instances where “noise” becomes primary mover and lets the crowd get emotionally involved. If there is a 300 point rally in the Nasdaq from here, the 80 point gap in Google is just the beginning. I talked about the financials when the market was almost 800 points lower than where [...]
Ivanhoe Energy, for having figured out how to dramatically alter the energy equation of bringing Bitumen (Oil Sand) to market in a cost effective and very ingenious manner that is patent protected, environmentally friendly, and has been tested by all the major producers with investment in Oil Sands, the market seems to not have noticed.
The [...]
