Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Capitalist Socialism and the Net Net of It All

The largest share redistribution of the country’s financial companies is about to take place right before our very eyes. This is the final crescendo of the Financial Crisis of 2008: Massive share sales of the strongest banks that are standing right now. ..
All of a sudden, showing strength for the past several weeks and clamoring [...]

Update on the B.R.I.C. Theme

There’s a lot of play here right now, and this group has consistently been on the top of my performance list. They’re a wild bunch and you have to try and trade against the herd, otherwise there’s no liquidity and you’ll get picked off like an ugly zit. The theme is really revving up and [...]

June Swoon in Equity Markets?

The SPX bottomed 3/6/09 at 666, and has never looked back, as the index galloped into the longest buying stampede in decades. Major indices are in the process of forming an intermediate “top” with insiders selling like mad. At the same time, many of the leading groups are breaking below their relative strength support levels. [...]

March 09 Market Reversal

This day will go down as the biggest blow-off text book reversal day in the history of mankind.  Group think is a manifestation of your own much more deeply rooted psychological impediments. Mental handicaps. Note it for the nth time and move on.
All the littles had textbook short written all over them on the open. [...]

Reversal Trading

Using DeMark’s TD Sequential

PERFECTED COUNTDOWNS

“Perfected”
Buy Countdown — Low of Bar 13 must be less than close of bar 8 to give some assurance that market is really oversold

“Perfected”
Sell Countdown — High of Bar 13 must be
greater than the close of bar 8 to give some assurance that market is
really [...]

Potential Signs Short Term Market Bottom

The market gapped down big and closed below the open on Monday for a second day in a row.  Selling was heavy but not excessive or extreme by any stretch of the imagination.
The major indices all fell between 4% to 5%.  Breadth was deeply negative, which is the only silver lining right now. The NYSE [...]

Banks to be Nationalized…

”It may be necessary to temporarily nationalise some banks in order to facilitate a swift and orderly restructuring,” he said. “I understand that once in a hundred years this is what you do.”
Alan Greenspan, Feb. 18, 2009
“If nationalisation is what works, then we should do it.”
Sen. Lyndsey Graham, R-S.C.
”You would have to be very careful [...]

Big Break S&P 500 and CRB

Wait a second. S&P 500 heading to 650?

Patience Young Grasshopper

Game Plan – Highly Selective Market Swings via ETF Baskets. Basket Trading is the ONLY THEME for FEBRUARY (or until correlations break 1).

Campaign – Searching for a successful test of S2’s, watching for major break through Nov. lows.
PRIORITY- VIX double bottom. Watch spread between VIX and Variance Futures

Week of Feb. 02
WED:Looking at the S&P, I [...]

Journal Entry Feb 02 2009

Game Plan – Highly Selective Market Swings via ETF Baskets. Basket Trading is the ONLY THEME for FEBRUARY (or until correlations break 1).

Campaign – Searching for a successful test of S2’s, watching for major break through Nov. lows.

PRIORITY- VIX double bottom
Week of Feb. 02
PST- Ultrashort 7-10yr Tsy.

Top Trades: SKF to 242-250- 153-154 MASSIVE A.Z.  Could
reverse [...]

Extremely Troubling Conditions Developing…

As it’s 10 minutes until the open in US equities, let me just say this opening scenario bodes rather badly for those bulls trapped from early last week. The open is below critical support levels, where those trapped investors have laid their stops. This could propel the market directly to its November lows. Many generals [...]

Another leg lower or just a head fake?

I just checked the message que and realized the flood of questions regarding the bearish signal coming from the spread between volatility futures and variance futures. The fact that I posted this signal on Wed. was not a reaction to the rally of the prior two days, so I can’t take credit for the sell-off [...]